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Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. D.R. Horton, America’s largest homebuilder, is doubling down on mortgage rate buydowns to keep its sales volumes up amidst an affordability-strained housing market. On its October 28 earnings call, the builder said 73% of its homebuyers in fiscal Q4 2025 received a mortgage rate buydown—up slightly from 72% in the previous quarter. “As we anticipated on our last call, we did expect to lean in more heavily to the offering of 3.99% [mortgage rate buydown],” said Jessica Hansen, D.R. Horton’s senior vice president of investor relations. “That is som…

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. U.S. existing-home sales totaled just 4.06 million in 2024—the lowest annual level since 1995, according to the National Association of Realtors. That’s far below the 5.3 million in pre-pandemic 2019. But here’s the thing: Today’s housing market is even more constrained when you consider that the U.S. now has 76.3 million more people and 33.2 million more households than it did in 1995. To illustrate this point, ResiClub created the following chart: U.S. existing home sales adjusted for population size. (We used total household counts instead of …

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. While national active inventory is still up year-over-year, the pace of growth has slowed since summer as some home sellers have thrown in the towel and delisted their properties. Indeed, according to Redfin, U.S. delistings as a share of inventory recently ticked up to 5.5%—a decade-high reading for this time of year. Looking ahead, in markets seeing the biggest jumps in delistings right now, many of those listings will likely return to the resale market in spring 2026—or test out the rental market. Without a corresponding increase in housing demand…

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. At the end of March 2025, national active housing inventory for sale was up 28.5% year-over-year. That year-over-year active inventory growth is happening just about everywhere. The recent jump in active inventory for sale tells us that homebuyers have gained some leverage in most housing markets over the past year. Some “seller’s markets have turned into “balanced markets,” while some “balanced markets” have turned into “buyer’s markets.” While active listings are rising year-over-year in most regional housing markets, most markets are st…

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. While national active inventory for sale is still rising year-over-year, the pace of growth has slowed in recent months—something we’ve been closely documenting for several months for our ResiClub members. The side-by-side maps below help you to see that decelerated rate of inventory growth: Left map: Year-over-year change in metro level active inventory between November 2023 and November 2024 Right map: Year-over-year change in metro level active inventory between November 2024 and November 2025 Click to expand Between November 2023 a…

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Total active U.S. housing inventory for sale recently fell by 42,133 homes, from 871,509 in December 2024 to 829,376 in January 2025, according to the latest Realtor.com data. Historically, national active inventory usually declines during this seasonal month-over-month window, with the average decline since 2017 being -69,646 between December and January. The fact that inventory is rising year-over-year, combined with January’s smallest inventory decline for the month since Realtor.com began publishing data in summer 2016, strongly suggests that…

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. When assessing home price momentum, ResiClub believes it’s important to monitor active listings and months of supply. If active listings start to rapidly increase as homes remain on the market for longer periods, it may indicate pricing softness or weakness. Conversely, a rapid decline in active listings beyond seasonality could suggest a market that is heating up. Since the national pandemic housing boom fizzled out in 2022, the national power dynamic has slowly been shifting directionally from sellers to buyers. Of course, across the country, that …

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. When assessing home price momentum, ResiClub believes it’s important to monitor active listings and months of supply. If active listings start to increase rapidly as homes remain on the market for longer periods, it may indicate pricing softness or weakness. Conversely, a rapid decline in active listings could suggest a market that’s heating up. Since the national Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out in 2022, the national power dynamic has slowly been shifting directionally from sellers to buyers. Of course, across the country that shift has varied sign…

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Just because a home listing gets a price cut doesn’t necessarily indicate that the home actually sold for less than its comps. Some real estate agents use pricing strategies that intentionally list too high to test the market or create negotiation room. After all, even during the pandemic housing boom—when home prices were surging—18.7% of U.S. homes for sale in March 2021 still saw a price cut. That said, if the share of inventory receiving a price cut rises beyond typical seasonal patterns, it can suggest a market where homebuyers are gaining lever…

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Like clockwork, every year, the U.S. housing market experiences a seasonal swing. It happens in both good years and bad. And while the seasonal trend may vary slightly by market (for example, snowbird markets), it remains fairly consistent across most housing markets. Here are three core components of the U.S. housing market’s seasonal effect—and what it means for buyers and sellers. 1. Existing home sales begin to rise heading into spring Seasonally speaking, U.S. existing home sales typically bottom out in January, then begin to rise mon…

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Speaking before the U.S. Senate this month, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said that a decade or more down the road, homeowners in some parts of the country won’t be able to find home insurance. “Both banks and insurance companies are pulling out of coastal areas or areas where there are a lot of fires. So what that is going to mean is that if you fast-forward 10 or 15 years, there are going to be regions of the country where you can’t get a mortgage,” Powell told Congress. “There won’t be [mortgage] ATMs, there won’t be banks [lending mortgages], so…

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. This week, Zillow economists announced that they expect U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, to rise 1.1% between January 2025 and January 2026. That’s a downward revision from their previous 12-month forecast, which had projected a 2.9% increase in U.S. home prices. “Zillow’s latest forecast anticipates home value growth in 2025 to be weaker than previously expected,” wrote Zillow economists on Wednesday. “New listings were higher than expected out of the gate this year, and inventory expectations that were revised higher ha…

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. On Tuesday, Zillow economists published their updated forecast model, projecting that U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, will rise 0.8% between February 2025 and February 2026. That’s another downward revision. Last month, their 12-month forecast projected a 1.1% increase in U.S. home prices, and the month before that, they expected a 2.9% increase. “The rise in [active] listings is fueling softer price growth, as greater supply provides more options and more bargaining power for buyers,” wrote Zillow economists on Tuesday.…

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Economic forecasting has never been an easy task, and it becomes even more challenging when confronted with unprecedented economic events like COVID-19 lockdowns and unparalleled levels of government intervention, followed by a rapid cycle of interest rate hikes. Look no further than recent mortgage rate forecasts. Last year marked the third year in a row that mortgage rates ended the year higher than forecasters expected. Will they finally get it right this year? ResiClub’s latest roundup of quarterly mortgage rate forecasts shows that most …

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Zillow economists use an economic model known as the Zillow Market Heat Index to gauge the competitiveness of housing markets across the country. This model looks at key indicators—including home price changes, inventory levels, and days on the market—to generate a score showing whether a market favors sellers or buyers. Higher scores point to hotter, seller-friendly metro housing markets. Lower scores signal cooler markets where buyers hold more negotiating power. According to Zillow: Score of 70 or higher = strong seller’s market …

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. When assessing home price momentum, ResiClub believes it’s important to monitor active listings and months of supply. If active listings start to increase rapidly as homes remain on the market for longer periods, it may indicate pricing softness or weakness. Conversely, a rapid decline in active listings beyond seasonality could suggest a market where sellers are gaining power. Since the national pandemic housing boom fizzled out in 2022, the power dynamic has slowly been shifting directionally from sellers to buyers. Of course, that shift has varied…

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. When assessing home price momentum, ResiClub believes it’s important to monitor active listings and months of supply. If active listings start to rapidly increase as homes remain on the market for longer periods, it may indicate pricing softness or weakness. Conversely, a rapid decline in active listings could suggest a market that is tightening or heating up. Since the national Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out in 2022, the national power dynamic has slowly been shifting directionally from sellers to buyers. Of course, across the country that shift …

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. When assessing home price momentum, it’s important to monitor active listings and months of supply. If active listings start to rapidly increase as homes remain on the market for longer periods, it may indicate pricing softness or weakness. Conversely, a rapid decline in active listings could suggest a market that is heating up. Generally speaking, local housing markets where active inventory has returned to pre-pandemic levels have experienced softer home price growth (or outright price declines) over the past 30 months. Conversely, local housing ma…

Finally, some good news for renters: Housing rental market concessions are at their highest level in over a decade, as lower demand and higher supply drive landlords to compete for prospective tenants by offering all sorts of incentives and freebies. Let’s take a look at the numbers. In January, 16.6% of stabilized apartments in the U.S. were offering some type of concession, one point higher than the previous month, and the highest since over a decade ago in 2014, according to RealPage Market Analytics as reported by CNBC. What is a rent concession? Rent concessions are generally one-time incentives, freebies, or perks, such as free rent for a few months, free…

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. During the pandemic housing boom, home flipping surged as soaring home prices and ultralow-interest rates attracted more flippers, especially newcomers, to the market. However, as the market shifted due to the rate shock of 2022, home-flipping activity has seen the biggest pullback since 2007, and many of those newcomers pulled back. In the last quarter of 2018, there were 71,358 home flips. In the last quarter of 2021, that shot up to 120,531 flips, before falling to 87,851 flips in the last quarter of 2022. In the last quarter of 2024, there were j…

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. During the Pandemic Housing Boom, housing demand surged rapidly amid ultralow interest rates, stimulus, and the remote work boom—which increased demand for space and unlocked “WFH arbitrage” as high earners were able to keep their income from a job in say, NYC or L.A., and buy in say Austin or Tampa. Federal Reserve researchers estimate “new construction would have had to increase by roughly 300% to absorb the pandemic-era surge in demand.” Unlike housing demand, housing stock supply isn’t as elastic and can’t ramp up as quickly. As a result, the heightene…

Want more housing market stories from Lance Lambert’s ResiClub in your inbox? Subscribe to the ResiClub newsletter. Generally speaking, housing markets where inventory (i.e., active listings) has returned to pre-pandemic 2019 levels have experienced weaker home price growth (or outright declines) over the past 36 months. Conversely, housing markets where inventory remains far below pre-pandemic 2019 levels have, generally speaking, experienced more resilient home price growth over the past 36 months. Of the 50 largest metro area housing markets, 21 major metros now have more homes for sale than at the same point in 2019. Last year, that count was 13 markets. T…