Soviet spacecraft Kosmos 482 will crash into Earth soon: Online tracker resources are following its reentry

The Soviet Union launched over a dozen probes to Venus—most successfully. But one never made it past Earth’s orbit and has, in fact, stayed there since 1972.

Now, over 50 years later, the one-meter-large Kosmos 482 is coming home, albeit a bit haphazardly. 

The 1,091-pound craft, also known as Kosmos 482 and Venera 8, is predicted to reach reentry within nine hours of 1:54 a.m. ET on May 10, according to the Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies (CORDS).

In other words, this could be late afternoon today or sometime tomorrow morning. 

If you think the when is varied, wait until you hear about the where.

Aerospace, the American nonprofit research and development center that runs CORDS, currently predicts that the craft could land anywhere between 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south latitude.

Ironically, that covers almost every country except the USSR’s successor, Russia.

What will happen to the probe upon reentry?

The craft could stay intact the entire way to Earth, as it was designed to survive the more severe atmosphere of Venus. However, the risk of it causing injury or death upon impact is about 0.4 in 10,000, according to Aerospace.

“While the risk is nonzero, any one individual on Earth is far likelier to be struck by lightning than to be injured by Kosmos 482,” the organization states. “We definitely do not expect Kosmos 482 to land in your yard specifically. Given the nature of its orbit, most of the Earth is still in play for its reentry, and consequently it is far more likely to land in the ocean or an unpopulated area.” 

In the rare chance that Kosmos 482 does land near you, Aerospace cautions you to contact the authorities and not touch it as it could be hazardous. Plus, an early space-age United Nations treaty means it could technically belong to Russia.

How can I track Kosmos 482 and follow updates?

You can stay up-to-date on Kosmos 482’s predicted reentry time on Aerospace’s tracking page.

Secondly, the EU Space Surveillance and Tracking Operation Centers (EU SST) is also tracking the craft’s reentry and posting updates on its website and X account.

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