Prediction markets are turning the Louvre heist into a game

In a stunt that’s surely destined for Netflix adaptation, this weekend a group of thieves broke into the Louvre in broad daylight and stole nine pieces of priceless jewelry in less than seven minutes. Prediction markets are already betting on whether the robbers will be caught.

Prediction markets, including popular sites like Polymarket and Kalshi, are platforms dedicated to betting on current events including elections, sports events, and even cultural moments. In the past, they’ve been used to gamble on the next pope, the incoming editor of Vogue, and even whether the “Coldplaygate” couple would each get a divorce.

Now, as French police desperately search for the whereabouts of the missing jewelry, armchair experts on these sites are looking to turn their own profits by intensely speculating on whether the thieves are destined for justice. Most betters think it’s not a question of if the perpetrators get caught, but when—and they’re casting votes for the most likely date of their arrests.

What was stolen from the Louvre?

The heist took place at about 9:30 a.m. on October 19. According to French Interior Minister Laurent Nunez in an interview with the AP, the crew accessed the museum’s Apollo Gallery via a basket lift, cut its window panes with a glass cutter, grabbed the jewels, and fled on motorbikes. French media is currently reporting that two perpetrators were dressed in yellow safety vests on the lift, while another two were each waiting on a scooter (though authorities are still investigating and have not confirmed these details).

The jewelry that was lifted included a diadem worn by Empress Eugénie featuring nearly 2,000 diamonds and more than 200 pearls; an emerald necklace and earrings gifted by Napoleon to his second wife Marie-Louise; and a diamond-and-sapphire jewelry set worn by multiple different queens. 

Despite successfully making off with some high-priced jewels, the robbers left one rather large breadcrumb in their wake: According to France’s culture ministry, Eugénie’s ornate gold crown was found lying outside the Louvre.

Tobias Kormind, managing director of the jeweler 77 Diamonds, told the AP that it’s “unlikely” the stolen jewels will ever be seen again. “Professional crews often break down and re-cut large, recognizable stones to evade detection, effectively erasing their provenance,” he added.

How prediction markets are responding

On Kalshi, the question, “Will the Louvre Crown Jewel thieves face charges this year?” has amassed a nearly $11,000 bidding pool as of this writing. The most popular option among bidders so far is “Before 2026,” with 60% of the pool, followed by “Before December” with 37%, and, finally, “Before November” with 16%.

Voters on Polymarket are betting within a much smaller time frame. The question, “Will any Louvre heist robbers be arrested by…?” has attracted more than $65,000 in betting volume, with the three top options being October 20, October 24, and October 31. Currently, betters have signaled a 2% chance of arrest by October 20, a 14% chance by October 24, and a 25% chance by October 31.

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