Will my health insurance premiums go up in 2026? What to know after the vote to reopen the government

After enough Democrats caved this week and agreed to fund the federal government without guarantees for extending healthcare subsidies for tens of millions of Americans, a big question on the minds of many is “Will my health insurance premiums go up?”

Unfortunately, the answer is likely to be a resounding yes, according to data compiled by the Kaiser Family Foundation (KFF), the nonprofit health research institute. 

Here’s how much more individuals and families of four can expect to pay for their healthcare premiums in 2026, unless Republicans decide to extend Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits—something the majority of GOP congresspeople have repeatedly said they have no plans to do.

Why are healthcare premiums likely to rise in 2026?

Yesterday, eight Democratic and independent senators who are not up for reelection in the midterms next year voted to support a Republican Senate resolution that would fund the federal government and thus end the longest U.S. government shutdown in history.

However, the agreement did not include the primary thing that Democrats had been holding out for: an extension of the Affordable Care Act’s (ACA) expiring enhanced premium tax credits.

This is a credit that millions of Americans received from the federal government to help pay for the cost of America’s expensive healthcare premiums. 

As part of the deal to reopen the government, the Senate Democrats got the Republicans to agree to a vote on extending healthcare credits before the end of the year.

But that is hardly a concession, as with the government now looking set to reopen (the House still has to vote), Democrats have no leverage over their Republican counterparts to compel them to vote in favor of the tax credit extension.

Without the extension of the tax credits, tens of millions of Americans will pay more for their health insurance in 2026—and in many cases a lot more. The increased financial burden will significantly affect already cash-strapped Americans.

How much more the average American will have to pay for their already costly healthcare will depend on their income level.

How much health insurance premiums will rise for individuals

According to KFF data, individuals can expect to pay up to $1,836 more per year for their healthcare premiums. Here’s how that breaks down by income level:

• $18,000 (115% of the Federal Poverty Level): $378 more
• $22,000 (141% FPL): $794 more
•  $28,000 (179% FPL): $1,238
• $35,000 (224% FPL): $1,582
• $45,000 (288% FPL): $1,836
• $55,000 (351% FPL): $1,469
• $65,000 (415% FPL): Varies

How much health insurance premiums will rise for a family of four

The dollar amount increases for families of four are even worse, according to KFF. Families of four can expect to pay up to $3,735 more per year:

• $40,000 (124% FPL): $840 more
• $45,000 (140% FPL): $1,607
• $55,000 (171% FPL): $2,404
• $75,000 (233% FPL): $3,368
• $90,000 (280% FPL): $3,735
• $110,000 (342% FPL): $3,201
• $130,000 (404% FPL): Varies

As KFF notes in its report, “In other words, expiration of the enhanced premium tax credits is estimated to more than double what subsidized enrollees currently pay annually for premiums—a 114% increase from an average of $888 in 2025 to $1,904 in 2026.”

Non-ACA health insurance premiums will likely rise

It’s not just the ACA. Americans with employer-based health insurance will likely also see their premiums increase in 2026. According to an NPR report, many employees could see their paycheck deductions for employer-sponsored health care plans surge by 6% to 7% in 2026. 

Unfortunately, this should come as little surprise, as employer-based healthcare premiums have been surging for more than 25 years—far outpacing the rate of inflation.

As NPR noted, in 1999, the average employer-sponsored health insurance plan for a family of four had a premium cost of $5,791. By 2024, that premium had skyrocketed to $25,572—a 342% increase.

Public opinion overwhelmingly supports ACA tax credit extension

A KFF poll published on November 6 found that Americans on both sides of the political spectrum support extending the enhanced premium tax credits, including 94% of Democrats, 76% of independents, and 50% of Republicans. 

Even 44% of MAGA supporters support the tax credit extension. That number jumps higher among Republicans who don’t identify as MAGA, with 72% of non-MAGA supporters among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents supporting the extension of credits.

Politicians in Congress will have to answer to those same voters come the midterms next year, when many Americans will be feeling the impact of higher premiums.

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