‘A threat to the survival of the planet’: Insider trading fears rise over Polymarket nuclear war market

Nuclear detonation could mark the start of World War III, plunging the planet into the deadliest conflict in human history. But on the bright side, it could have turned a profit for a few lucky gamblers.

Prediction platform Polymarket lets users bet on everything from pop culture to global politics to the amount of times Elon Musk will post on X in a week. But one of its latest markets seems to have crossed an ethical line: an event titled “Nuclear weapon detonation by…?” where users could bet on when a nuclear bomb would go off.

After major backlash online, the event has been archived, but not before Polymarket users bet more than $838,000 total, predicting that a nuclear bomb would detonate by dates including the end of the month, the end of June, and the end of the year. In a since-deleted post on X, Polymarket predicted a 22% chance of nuclear detonation by the end of 2026.

Polymarket has not responded to Fast Company’s request for comment.

The market raised concerns on social media about the potential for “insider trading” by government officials and their inner circles, who critics suggested could be incentivized to push for nuclear war if they’d bet on it happening by a given date.

Journalist David Sirota called attention to the event with a viral post on X, pointing out that the market would “monetize a nuclear attack.” Other users across social media chimed in to agree with Sirota, calling Polymarket “a threat to the survival of the planet” and saying that a gambling-motivated nuclear war “would be such a bleak ending to humanity.” Leftist influencer Hasan Piker also commented, writing, “this is worse than any dystopia we couldve imagined.”

This marks the second controversy for Polymarket this week alone, after a mystery trader named “Magamyman” made $533,000 from betting that the U.S. would strike Iran and that Iran’s supreme leader would be ousted from power. Both quickly came true, prompting outcry from lawmakers including Rep. Mike Levin (D-CA), who pointed out that “Magamyman” placed his first bet just 71 minutes before news of the strike on Iran became public.

“Prediction markets cannot be a vehicle for profiting off advance knowledge of military action,” Levin wrote on social media.

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