The odds are shifting in the Oscars race: Here are the likely front-runners after last weekend’s industry awards

After a rough start to 2025 due to the devastating Eaton and Palisades fires, awards season in Hollywood is officially back in the swing of things. The fires, which broke out right after the Golden Globes, even caused some to question awards shows’ relevance in this time of crisis.

Despite several delays, however, the Critics Choice Awards was held at Barker Hangar in Santa Monica on February 7. The following day, the Producers Guild of America Awards (PGA) was held at the Fairmont Century Plaza in Los Angeles and the Directors Guild of America Awards (DGA) was presented at the Beverly Hilton in Beverly Hills.

The results from these three prestigious awards shows could give you an edge in your office Oscars bets as many of the same people involved are also voting members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences. Let’s recap what happened and what it could mean for the Academy Awards.

The Critics Choice Awards

The fires were acknowledged at every event. Critics Choice Awards host, comedian Chelsea Handler, opened the show by saying, “We’ve been through a lot lately” before cracking a Justin Baldoni-Blake Lively joke to lighten the mood. It set the tone for a self-aware celebration.

Voters made up of entertainment journalists and critics spread the love among many films this year.

Conclave took home Best Acting Ensemble, which does not have an Oscars equivalent but shows support for the film in general.

Kieran Culkin was awarded Best Supporting Actor for his work in A Real Pain while Zoe Saldaña won Best Supporting Actress for her work in Emilia Pérez, making them both front-runners for an Oscar.

Riding their Golden Globe momentum, Demi Moore took home the honors for Best Actress for the horror film The Substance and Adrien Brody won Best Actor for his work in The Brutalist.

And while he might not have been nominated for an Oscar or a DGA Award, that didn’t stop Jon M. Chu from winning Best Director for his work on Wicked: Part One—or for saying in his acceptance speech, “I’m going to win that Oscar!” before quietly acknowledging, “I’m not nominated.” 

For the first time ever, Best Picture went to a film that won no other awards: Sean Baker’s Anora. It would turn out to be a big weekend for this indie film.

The DGA Awards

Judd Apatow served as host and brought the funny, but DGA president Lesli Linka Glatter opened the event by expressing gratitude to first responders and urged production companies to bring filming back to the United States so the city could continue to heal.

The Oscars link is strong, with only two films in history ever winning Best Picture without first being recognized here.

Anora continued its winning streak, taking home top honors for Outstanding Directorial Achievement in a Theatrical Feature Film. It is also important to note that RaMell Ross took home the Michael Apted First Time Directorial Feature Award for his work on Nickel Boys, which is also up for a Best Picture Oscar.

The PGA Awards

According to the Hollywood Reporter, PGA presidents Stephanie Allain and Donald De Linehe started the evening by sharing that the organization started a fire fund to support those who were impacted by the disaster. It had already raised $450,000 and attendees were encouraged to keep donating throughout the evening.

Like its name suggests, the Producers Guild of America celebrates, well, producers—not individual performers or designers or specialized creators. Membership is about the same size as the Academy, and both organizations utilize a weighted preferential ballot.

The big Oscars award precursor here is the Darryl F. Zanuck Award for Outstanding Producer of Theatrical Motion Pictures. The 10 nominees are almost identical to the Academy’s choices.

In the past 15 years, 12 Best Picture winners first took home this prize, including last year’s champion, Oppenheimer. Just hours after it took home the DGA honors, PGA presenter Jodie Foster announced that Anora would also be the winner here.

Where does this leave us in the Oscars race?

After this weekend, Anora is the new Best Picture front-runner.

The dramedy dethroned Emilia Pérez, which was already losing ground after several controversies, including actress Karla Sofía Gascón’s offensive tweets. This musical was once on top with 13 nominations, the highest number this year.

Wicked, the other musical in the running, saw a glimmer of hope this weekend with its wins and glowing reception at the Critics Choice Awards, but it might not get Oscars glory until part 2 is released late this year.

Anora could not have peaked at a better time. Final Oscars voting begins on February 11 and goes until the 18th; so the movie, the acceptance speeches, and buzz will be top of mind for Academy members.

A possible weakness in this film’s ascent to the top is its lack of below-the-line support. Beyond producers, directors, and critics, the Academy is also made up of cinematographers, editors, and other designers who will also need to champion the project, and its lack of nominations in those categories could be telling.

Other precursor awards to keep an eye on are the BAFTA Awards, essentially the British Oscars, and the Screen Actors Guild (SAG) Awards. The BAFTAs take place on February 16 in London, and the SAG Awards are set for February 23 in L.A. If Anora takes home the top prize in either of those ceremonies, it will almost certainly cement its future Oscars win.

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