Social Security COLA prediction for 2027 could mean bad news for seniors

Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) could stay at 2.8% in 2027, the same as its rate for this year.

That’s the latest prediction from The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) and mirrors 2026’s COLA. If enacted in October, it would increase the average benefits check from $2,024.77 to $2,081.46—a $56.69 increase. 

The TSCL finds the 2.8% increase concerning due to high costs of living, such as rents and mortgages.

“The fact is that most senior households already get by on only about 58% as much income as their working-age counterparts, and you’d be hard-pressed to find a middle-class or working-class American who thinks the economy is doing well right now, especially as oil prices rise,” TSCL executive director Shannon Benton said in a statement.

She added: “Reforming Social Security needs to follow a two-pronged approach, strengthening revenues and benefits at the same time to ensure prosperity for all Americans, of all ages.”

How was the COLA prediction calculated?

The nonpartisan senior group’s prediction uses a model incorporating the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the Federal Reserve interest rate, and the national unemployment rate. It releases a new figure monthly, but has maintained a predicted 2.8% COLA since February. 

The predicted COLA comes as Congress has proposed capping Social Security payments at $50,000 for one person and $100,000 for couples.

The “Six Figure Limit” aims to prevent looming insolvency—something that is on track to occur in seven years.

However, the TSCL claims most seniors aren’t in favor of the cap, instead in favor of getting rid of a $184,500 limit on income receiving Social Security tax. 

Notably, TSCL’s prediction is just one estimate floating around.

For instance, independent Social Security and Medicare policy analyst Mary Johnson has predicted a COLA of 3.2%, CNBC reports. This figure is up from Johnson’s March prediction of 1.7%, a shift she attributes to rising gas prices.

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