New poll explains why people fill out March Madness brackets

As March Madness takes over this week, how many people are filling out NCAA brackets — and why?

A new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research shows what share of Americans typically take a shot at bracket predictions and their motivation for joining in the madness.

The survey found that about one-quarter of Americans fill out a men’s March Madness bracket “every year” or “some years.” But what about the women’s tournament? High-profile NCAA women’s basketball games have closed the gap with men’s tournaments in terms of viewership and there is more money flowing in and around women’s sports in general; women’s teams will now be paid to play in the tournament, just like men have for years. It all points to higher interest in how women’s teams fare even if the bracket frenzy has not quite caught up.

The survey found that 16% of U.S. adults fill out a women’s tournament bracket “every year” or “some years.” And it’s much more common for bracket participants to only fill out a bracket for the men’s tournament than the women’s — about 1 in 10 U.S. adults only fill out a men’s tournament bracket, while only 2% fill out only a women’s bracket. Another 14% fill out a bracket for both tournaments at least “some years.”

So, a sizeable chunk of Americans are into NCAA bracketology, but what’s behind the hype?

Among those who fill out brackets at least “some years,” about 7 in 10 say a reason for their participation was for the glory of winning, the chance to win money or the fact that other people were doing it.

They’re less likely to be motivated by support for a specific school or team — and in particular, to say this was a “major” reason for their participation.

There’s certainly a financial motivation for correctly predicting the Final Four, and it’s hard to deny NCAA college basketball is in a betting-heavy era. More Americans can legally bet money on the NCAA men’s and women’s basketball tournaments than in previous years, and many will place a wager on their bracket’s success.

Does that mean Americans think the tournaments are all about wagering, or that it’s technically gambling to enter a friends-and-family pool with only a modest payout at stake?

Most U.S. adults — 56% — say that if someone enters a March Madness bracket pool for money, they consider that to be gambling. About 2 in 10 say it depends on the amount of money, and another 2 in 10, roughly, say this is not gambling.

Who are the March Madness bracket diehards?

Men tend to make up the bulk of the regulars who fill out a bracket at least “some years.” Among the March Madness bracket regulars, about 6 in 10 are men, including about one-third who are men under the age of 45. These bracket regulars are less likely to be women; only about 4 in 10 are women, and they’re about evenly split between being older or younger.

Those who only fill out a bracket for the men’s tournament are also overwhelmingly men. About 7 in 10 people who fill out a men’s bracket — and not a women’s bracket — “every year” or “some years” are men. About 4 in 10 are men over 45, and about 3 in 10 are younger men.

If you can’t beat them, avoid them?

Not everyone wants to risk a bracket buster and people avoiding the Madness this month are hardly alone.

About 7 in 10 U.S. adults say they “never” fill out a men’s or women’s bracket. This group leans more female: About 6 in 10 bracket avoiders are women. And roughly one-third in this group are women over 45.

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The AP-NORC poll of 1,112 adults was conducted Feb. 6-10, using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.

—Linley Sanders, Associated Press

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