Posted 15 hours ago15 hr comment_13451 Artificial intelligence (AI) is upending the economic engine of the web, and Google is at the center of the disruption, according to Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince. What Prince said. In a recent interview with the Council on Foreign Relations, Prince said: “AI is going to fundamentally change the business model of the web. The business model of the web for the last 15 years has been search… search drives everything that happens online.” The Google tipping point. Google’s value exchange with content creators has collapsed, Prince said: “Ten years ago… for every two pages of a website that Google scraped, they would send you one visitor. … That was the trade. … Now, it takes six pages scraped to get one visitor.” That drop reflects the rise of zero-click searches, which happen when searchers get answers directly on Google’s search page. “Today, 75 percent of the queries… get answered without you leaving Google.” This trend, long criticized by publishers and SEOs, is part of a broader concern: AI companies are using original content to generate answers that rarely/never drive traffic back to creators. AI makes the problem worse. Large language models (LLMs) are accelerating the crisis, Prince said. AI companies scrape far more content per user interaction than Google ever has — with even less return to creators. “What do you think it is for OpenAI? 250 to one. What do you think it is for Anthropic? Six thousand to one.” “More and more the answers… won’t lead you to the original source, it will be some derivative of that source.” This situation threatens the sustainability of the web as we know it, Prince said: “If content creators can’t derive value… then they’re not going to create original content.” The modern web is breaking. AI companies are aware of the problem, and the business model of the web can’t survive unless there’s some change, Prince said: “Sam Altman at OpenAI and others get that. But… he can’t be the only one paying for content when everyone else gets it for free.” Cloudflare’s right in the middle of this problem — it powers 80% of AI companies and a 20-30% of the web. Cloudfaire is now trying to figure out how to help fix what’s broken, Prince said. AI = money fire. Prince is not against AI. However, he said he is skeptical of the investment frenzy. “I would guess that 99% of the money that people are spending on these projects today is just getting lit on fire. But 1% is going to be incredibly valuable.” “And so maybe we’ve all got a light, you know, $100 on fire to find that $1 that matters.” The full quote. “AI is going to fundamentally change the business model of the web. The business model of the web for the last 15 years has been search. One way or another, search drives everything that happens online. And if you look back 10 years ago, if you did a search on Google you got back a list of 10 blue links. And we have data on how Google processed those 10 blue links. And the answer was that for every two pages of a website that Google scraped they would send you one visitor, right? So scrape two pages, get one visitor. And that was the trade. Over that period of time of the ten years some things have changed at Google. One thing that hasn’t changed is the crawl rate. They’re still scraping at the exact same rate that they have over that period of time. But now it takes six pages scraped to get one visitor. What’s changed? The answer is that today, 75 percent of the queries that get put into Google get answered without you leaving Google, get answered on that page. So if you want to ask, when did David Rubenstein start Carlyle? About 10 years ago it would take you to maybe a Wikipedia page or something else. Today, the answer comes up right on the page, and you don’t have to go anywhere else. The consequence of that means that original content creators that are creating that content, if they were deriving value through selling subscriptions or putting up ads, or just the ego of knowing that someone is reading your stuff, that’s gone, right? That’s has fallen off a cliff. And that’s the good news. So it was 2:1 10 years ago for Google. It’s 6:1 today. What do you think it is for OpenAI? 250:1. What do you think it is for Anthropic? 6,000:1, right? And so the business model of the web can’t survive unless there’s some change, because more and more the answers to the questions that you ask won’t lead you to the original source, it will be some derivative of that source. And if content creators can’t derive value from what they’re doing, then they’re not going to create original content. And I think the smartest AI companies out there, Sam Altman at OpenAI and others, get that. But at the same time, he can’t be a sucker. He can’t be the only one paying for content when everyone else gets it for free. And so something has to change with that business model. And we sit in between 80 percent of the AI companies use Cloudflare, similar—you know, 20 to 30 percent of the web uses Cloudflare. And so we sit in the middle of that. And I think part of what we’re thinking about is that. In terms of, is AI a fad, is it overhyped? I think the answer is probably yes and no. I would guess that 99 percent of the money that people are spending on these projects today is just getting lit on fire. But 1 percent is going to be incredibly valuable. And I can’t tell you what 1 percent of that is. And so maybe we’ve all got a light, you know, $100 on fire to find that one dollar that matters.” The interview. Bernard L. Schwartz Annual Lecture With Matthew Prince of Cloudflare View the full article
