Asteroid watch: 2024 YR4 is heading our way. Track its chances of hitting Earth with this NASA tool

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From devastating climate change to ongoing wars to the dismantling of the globe’s largest aid agency, there’s no shortage of problems facing the world. And now we can add another one to the list: An asteroid could conceivably hit the planet in just under eight years. And while the chances of that happening are very small, they have now nearly doubled.

In December, the Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) in Chile, developed by the University of Hawaii and funded by NASA, discovered the existence of an asteroid known as 2024 YR4. 

That ATLAS should discover an asteroid is no surprise—there are millions of them in our cosmic neck of the woods alone. However, 2024 YR4 triggered the alarm at ATLAS because there’s a not-insignificant chance that the asteroid, which is about the size of the Eiffel Tower, may slam into Earth in 2032.

Impact odds are rising

At the time of the object’s discovery, NASA calculated that the chance of the asteroid actually hitting Earth—what it calls the “Impact Probability”—was about 1.3%. That means there was a 98.7% chance that the asteroid would miss us. Or to put that another way, there was a 1 in 83 chance that 2024 YR4 would hit us.

Unfortunately, the impact probability of 2024 YR4 has now risen. As a matter of fact, the probability of the asteroid hitting Earth has nearly doubled to 2.3%, according to Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring, an online tool provided by NASA’s Center for Near Earth Object Studies.

Now Sentry’s Impact Probability rating is classified as “2.3e-2,” which means there is now a 2.3% chance of 2024 YR4 slamming into the planet. NASA says this means the odds of impact are now 1 in 43.

Yellow Zone warning

NASA’s Sentry tool also reveals that the asteroid has a maximum hazard rating of 3 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale. Torino is a scale that categorizes the effects an asteroid or comet’s impact would have on the Earth. The Torino Scale assigns both numeric ratings and color codes to such objects.

The Torino Impact Hazard Scale runs from 0 to 10. A 0 rating means that a heavenly object poses no threat to the planet, while a 10 means, basically, we’re all going to die. (NASA is more tactful in its description of a level 10 event, stating, “A collision is certain, capable of causing global climatic catastrophe that may threaten the future of civilization as we know it, whether impacting land or ocean.”)

Numerical classifications are further grouped into colors as well. A 0 is white, a 1 is green, 2-4 is yellow, 5-7 is orange, and 8-10 is red. 

A level 3 rating on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale means that 2024 YR4 is in the yellow zone, which the scale says “merits attention by astronomers.” 

“A close encounter, meriting attention by astronomers,” the Yellow Zone’s description reads. “Current calculations give a 1% or greater chance of collision capable of localized destruction.”

However, there is some good news: A Yellow Zone warning doesn’t mean that impact is a certainty. 

“Most likely, new telescopic observations will lead to re-assignment to Level 0,” the zone’s description continues. But it also notes that “Attention by public and by public officials is merited if the encounter is less than a decade away.”

The asteroid 2024 YR4 is less than a decade away.

When might the 2024 YR4 asteroid hit Earth?

Even though the odds of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth have risen, it is still much more likely than not that the asteroid will miss Earth entirely. However, if it were to impact Earth, it would likely do so on December 22, 2032.

But that’s just its first chance to strike Earth. If it misses us then, 2024 YR4 gets more chances in 2039, 2043, 2047, and 2079.

You can track NASA’s updates about the asteroid by using its Sentry: Earth Impact Monitoring tool.

Should I worry about asteroid 2024 YR4?

It seems pointless to worry because there’s not anything you as an individual can do about 2024 YR4. Besides, the odds are still in our favor that 2024 YR4 will miss Earth. And even if it hits us, it won’t be a civilization-ending event, though, depending on where it hits, it could devastate even a large city.

And if it’s any consolation, NASA knows of no other asteroid that has the impact probability rating 2024 YR4 does. “Currently, no other known large asteroids have an impact probability above 1%,” NASA said in a January statement.

So things will probably be fine in 2032 and beyond.

Of course, even if we are spared an asteroid impact, we still have the zombie spiders to worry about.

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