Young homebuyers are vanishing from the housing market—just look at this chart

[ResidentialBusiness]

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When economic analysts talk about a cyclical change, they’re talking about short-term fluctuations driven by the business cycle. When those same analysts talk about a secular change, they’re talking about long-term, structural shifts in the economy. Sometimes a trend can be a little of both.

One example: First-time homebuyers keep getting older. In 1991, the median age of first-time homebuyers in the U.S. was 28 years old. In 2024, it was 38 years old.

In other words, the median first-time U.S. homebuyer in 2024 (age 38) has been out of high school for 20 years but is also only 24 years away from the earliest age at which they could receive Social Security benefits (age 62).

Some of that increase is driven by how strained housing affordability has gotten over the past three years.

And some of that increase is driven by secular changes, which are happening across the developed world, as younger generations are delaying life events compared to previous generations—attending school longer, marrying later, buying homes later, and having children later.

It isn’t just first-time homebuyers. Repeat homebuyers are getting older, too. In 1991, the median age of repeat homebuyers in the U.S. was 42 years old. In 2024, it was 61 years old.

While delayed life events and fewer homebuyers in their twenties and thirties are driving up the median age of repeat buyers, there are other factors. Part of the reason repeat buyers are older stems from the fact that the overall U.S. population is skewing older as the giant baby boomer generation ages and birth rates decline.

Another factor is that older U.S. homeowners with substantial equity or even a paid-off primary residence are a little less sensitive to the recent mortgage rate shock. If they need to buy, some have taken the plunge over the past couple of years, avoiding 6% and 7% mortgage rates by simply paying all cash.

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