The odds are shifting in the Oscars race: Here are the latest front-runners after last weekend’s Actor Awards

Early this year, the glitz and glamour of Hollywood awards season kicked off with the Critics Choice Awards, and soon everything will culminate with the Academy Awards on March 15.

With the Oscars just two weeks away—and the rest of awards season nearly behind us—it’s the perfect time to overanalyze what movie will emerge victorious on the big night.

All this overthinking could even help you win your office competition (or make some money on Polymarket or Kalshi). Here’s everything you need to know to make an informed Oscar prediction ballot:

How Oscar nominations are chosen

The Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, the organization behind the Oscars, is made up of around 11,000 entertainment industry professionals broken down into 19 different branches, such as actors, directors, cinematographers, and editors.

Studios, distributors, or even filmmakers themselves officially submit their projects to be considered for nomination.

The acting, directing, and best picture categories are secretive. For these major categories, voters can back up to five performances on a preferential ballot.

Oscar nomination voting began on January 12 and lasted five days. This year’s nominations were announced on Thursday, January 22, 2026.

Who was nominated for an Oscar?

Ryan Coogler’s Sinners made Academy Award history by scoring 16 nods, making it the most nominated film of all time.

The previous title holders, All About Eve (1950), Titanic (1997), and La La Land (2016), each had 14 in a three way tie.

Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another received 13 nominations, including Best Picture, Director, and Adapted Screenplay.

Frankenstein, Marty Supreme, and Sentimental Value all got nine nominations. For a full list of nominees, visit the Academy website.

Timothée Chalamet’s Best Actor nomination for his work in Marty Supreme made him the youngest actor since Marlon Brando to be nominated three times in the elite category.

Weapons isn’t Amy Madigan’s first Best Supporting Actress nomination. That came in 1986 for her work in Twice in a Lifetime. Forty years later, she holds the title for the longest time period between nominations.

“I’ve been doing this a long-ass time,” she quipped in her Actor Awards acceptance speech, as reported by USA Today.

Notably, Wicked: For Good received no Oscar love. Neither did the less commercial flick The Testament of Ann Lee.

Many critics also believe that Jafar Panahi and Guillermo del Toro should have been included in the Best Director category. Some also believe that Paul Mescal’s portrayal of William Shakespeare in Hamnet should have been nominated.

Best Actor prediction

Going into last week’s SAG-AFTRA Actor Awards, Timothée Chalamet felt like a safe bet to take home the prize, especially since he had already won the Critics Choice Award and Golden Globe for his work in Marty Supreme.

Let’s also not forget that he took home last year’s award for his work in A Complete Unknown. Even presenter Viola Davis was surprised to read Michael B. Jordan’s name instead.

With this development, it feels like a tight race between Jordan and Chalamet for the Best Actor Oscar. Jordan, however, has momentum and age on his side, as historically the Academy Awards honors older actors.

The Secret Agent’s Wagner Moura did his best to charm voters, but it does not seem like that will be enough for an upset.

Best Actress prediction

This is the one category that seems locked in. Jessie Buckley has already taken home the Golden Globe, the Critics Choice Award, the BAFTA, and the Actor Award for her work in Hamnet.

Rose Byrne is her only serious threat, but her loss at the Actor Awards appears to signal Buckley’s almost certain victory.

For further perspective, both Polymarket and Kalshi give Buckley a 95% chance of winning.

Best Picture prediction

The biggest award of the night is expected to be a race between the two most nominated flicks, Sinners and One Battle After Another.

Both the PGA and the DGA gave this honor to Battle, which historically predicts where the Academy Award will go.

But there is precedence for another avenue to victory. In 2020, Parasite took home the Oscar without the other guild awards after winning best ensemble at the SAG Awards. Sinners already accomplished that step, so time will tell if this means Oscar gold is imminent.

Polymarket has a clear favorite, giving Battle a 81% chance and Sinners a mere 14%. Kalshi also favors Battle at 80% versus Sinners at 16%.

The Academy concludes voting on March 5. The 98th Academy Awards ceremony is set to take place at Hollywood’s Dolby Theatre on March 15.

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