A NASA spacecraft could crash into the Earth today. The chances of it hitting someone are tiny, but not zero

In 2012, NASA launched two probes into space: Van Allen Probe A and Van Allen Probe B. Their goal was to collect data on charged particles passing through Earth’s magnetic field.

Those particles can wreak havoc on communications and other technologies on our planet, so understanding them is important.

In 2019, the Van Allen Probes’ mission ended. With its fuel spent, the “A” probe is set to reenter Earth’s atmosphere today, and the parts of it that are not burned up upon reentry may crash onto our planet in the next 24 hours.

Here’s what you need to know.

Which probe is crashing?

Thankfully, we only need to worry about one probe crashing into Earth today. That one is the Van Allen Probe A. The Van Allen Probe B isn’t scheduled to reenter Earth’s atmosphere until at least 2030.

Still, that means there is one 1,323-pound space object expected to hit Earth within the next 24 hours. The good news is that NASA says much of the probe is expected to burn up upon reentry. However, the space agency does caution that “some components are expected to survive re-entry” as well.

When will the probe hit Earth?

NASA says the Van Allen Probe A is expected to reenter the Earth’s atmosphere at around 7:45 p.m. EDT on March 10—“with an uncertainty of +/- 24 hours.”

That means that you can likely expect the probe to hit anytime between today and tomorrow.

Where will the probe crash?

That’s the million-dollar question. As of right now, NASA can’t determine exactly where the remains of the 1,323-pound space tech will land.

You can check out a real-time map of where Van Allen Probe A is currently orbiting on N2YO.com, a satellite tracking service. As you can see from the map, the probe’s current route shows it passing over the northern tip of South America, Central Africa, and Indonesia.

The good news is that 70% of the Earth is covered in water, so, as the Times of India points out, there’s a roughly 70% chance that any debris will land in one of Earth’s oceans.

NASA says it will continue to monitor the probe and update its predictions as it becomes more certain.

But what are the chances the probe will land on me?

Pretty minuscule. NASA says the risk of any harm coming to any person on Earth as a result of the falling probe is about 1 in 4,200.

But that’s the risk of the probe hitting any earthling. That chances of it hitting you, specifically, then, are so much lower as to be minuscule.

Then again, nothing can ever be certain, so if you’re overly cautious, it doesn’t hurt to keep an eye on the sky today.

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