Get ready for the great American TV trade-in rush

In 2020, as people began to realize they would be spending significantly more time at home than they had planned in January, a lot of people splurged on a new TV. Approximately 315.6 million new sets found their way to households around the world that year, a 6% increase from the year before.

Those sets still have some life in them. The average TV will run for 10 years or more without issue, but many homeowners are starting to feel like their sets are getting a bit long in the tooth. And over the next year or two, the industry could see a big rush in customers.

Circana, which monitors consumer purchases, says the average TV is replaced every 6.6 years. That figure dropped to 5 years during the pandemic, reflecting the surge in buying as people stayed (and worked) from home full-time.

That puts more than 20% of the sets in use globally in that upgrade zone. Manufacturers are eager for the possible sales uplift—and it could come early this year.

Big sporting events tend to drive buyers to new sets. The days before the Super Bowl are filled with discounts on high-end sets and sales to fans who want to see the game as clearly as possible. This year, the 2026 World Cup is expected to be a sales driver. Labor Day also sees a surge as the NFL season nears. (Black Friday, of course, is huge as price-conscious shoppers hunt for bargains.)

Price is one of the key drivers when it comes to consumer purchasing decisions on new TVs, but screen size is playing an increasing role as well. That’s proving beneficial for companies like TCL, which is the world’s second-largest TV brand by shipment volume (and one of the leaders in large screen TVs). And the company is betting people are ready to go bigger in 2026 and 2027.

“Historically, [consumers have] upgraded to get a larger TV,” says Chris Hamdorf, senior vice president at TCL. “The TV they bought six years ago that they thought was a big TV isn’t a big TV anymore.”

Consumers do seem to agree bigger is better. Research group Omdia predicts the ultra-large category (80 inches and above) will increase by 44% from 2025 to 2029, an increase of 9 million units in 2025 to over 13 million by 2029.

“There are some growth dynamics within the TV hardware category. Larger TVs, especially those between 65 and 85 inches, have been growing in sales,” Circana wrote in its 2026 Future of TV report. “Even extra-extra-large TVs enjoyed respectable sales during the recent holiday season.”

Besides the itch to get an even bigger screen on the wall, there’s a degree of FOMO among consumers when it comes to newer TVs. You can’t walk into a Costco, Sam’s Club or Best Buy without seeing the latest and the greatest sets, which generally have a better picture quality than the sets people own.

Additionally, newer sets have improved integration of apps, including streaming services (meaning they can jump from Netflix to Disney+ with less lag). The rise of cloud gaming services also plays a role, as consumers can play, for example, the latest Xbox games without having to drop $500 or more on a console.

The hurdle to this growth could be the same one facing many consumer electronics manufacturers today: The voracious appetite of the artificial intelligence industry. Computer memory shortages are causing a scramble in several industries, as prices escalate and availability dissipates. That, ultimately, will impact prices—and, likely, the bottom line of manufacturers. The hope within the industry is that the value proposition with advances in sets is enough to convince consumers to make the purchase

“The memory costs are real and that is going to impact the industry, says Hamdorf. “The more premium the TV, the more memory they have in them. If you’re a consumer and the last time you purchased a TV was during COVID, the prices you’re paying for TVs today, even with the memory costs, and what you’re getting in that TV is going to be significantly better than five or six years ago.”

That’s due to the natural price declines of components. An 85-inch set during COVID, Hamdorf says, cost about $2,000. Today, that amount will get you a 98-inch set.

Many Americans, however, don’t want to spend $2,000 on a new TV. A survey by CNET found the average American wants to spend $1,177. Fortunately, that can still result in a much better set.

“At the end of the day, an inexpensive TV upgrade to a larger size really provides a noticeable value impact for the average consumer,” says Paul Gagnon vice president of thought leadership at Circana. “For the price of a couple trips to the movie theater for a family of four, you can get a big screen TV with the latest streaming video apps and probably a big trade up compared to the older TV in the house.”

And for those that want the biggest and best?

“The good thing for the consumer is this is an incredibly competitive business,” says Hamdorf.

View the full article