The global oil crisis is proving the case for sustainable aviation

As the conflict in Iran strains the world’s oil supplies, a lot of attention has focused on gasoline: Average gas prices have increased more than a dollar a gallon since the war began, exceeding $4 a gallon for the first time in four years.

But vehicle travel isn’t the only type of transportation affected. Jet fuel prices have roughly doubled in that same time frame. In March, U.S. airlines spent 56% more on fuel as compared to February, per Bureau of Transportation Statistics.

When it comes to cars, rising gas prices have highlighted the benefits of—and spurred more interest in—sustainable alternatives like electric vehicles. The conflict has underscored the fact that EVs and renewables aren’t just good for the environment; they’re also a buffer against geopolitical instability. 

The same thing is now starting to happen in the airline industry with sustainable aviation fuels. But meeting that demand may be a challenge. 

Sustainable aviation fuels aren’t just for climate goals

“Sustainable aviation fuel is not just for sustainability,” says United Airlines CEO Scott Kirby. “I tell everyone [jet fuel is] our biggest cost. It’s our most volatile cost. …and guess what happened?”

Kirby, a self-proclaimed “climate change geek,” has long been interested in sustainable aviation fuels (also called SAFs) as both a way to reduce airline emissions and a tool to reduce costs. 

SAF makers echo his arguments. “SAF not only supports emission reductions and propulsion for aviation, but also strengthens fuel security and reduces exposure to these external shocks,” says Chris Cooper, CEO of sustainable aviation fuel company XCF Global. At its refinery in Reno, XCF can produce SAF using domestic waste feedstocks, turning fuel from a global commodity to a more stable, local one. 

Still, SAF remains a small portion of airlines’ overall fuel usage. United, a leader in terms of SAF usage, has invested in the production of more than 5 billion gallons of SAF. Even so, SAF accounted for just around 0.3% of the airline’s fuel use as of December 2024, according to the company’s most recent impact report.

To ramp up SAF production and use, Kirby says the industry needs “the kind of government carrots that worked for wind and solar.” 

The Inflation Reduction Act was a start; the Biden-era legislation provided tax credits and grants to make SAFs more cost competitive to conventional fuels. President Donald The President’s One Big Beautiful Bill Act, however, cut those tax credits nearly in half—from $1.75 per gallon to just $1 per gallon.

Challenges to scaling up SAFs

The political environment has companies across different industries, including airlines, quieter about their climate goals. In April, Delta Airlines erased some environmental targets from its sustainability web page, including its pledge to use SAF for 10% of its jet fuel by 2030. 

The turn away from sustainability is happening outside the U.S. as well: In 2024, Air New Zealand abandoned its 2030 climate goal.

Kirby says a lot of these airlines had set environmental goals with an ambitious 2030 deadline—in line with the Paris Agreement targets. For some companies, it seems that date is proving hard to meet, so they’re rolling back their commitments.

“Our goal was always 2035,” Kirby says. United aims to cut its greenhouse gas emissions intensity 50% by then, compared to 2019 levels, and 100% by 2050. “There’s no way we’re going to get this done in 2030,” he says. “It just wasn’t going to happen.”

The high price of SAF has also made some airline executives reluctant to commit to the climate solution. “I’ve heard other CEOs who I like and respect say, ‘if someone produces SAF and it’s cost competitive, I’ll buy it,’” Kirby says. “Okay, but we should try to help make that happen.” 

Even with jet fuel prices currently soaring, the price gap is notable. SAF costs over $3 more a gallon than conventional jet fuel, according to the trade association Airlines for America. 

As a SAF producer, Cooper says that the industry needs more support. Before becoming CEO of XCF, Cooper was president of Neste, a SAF producer that has partnered with United multiple times, including to bring SAF to the Houston, Newark, and Dulles airports in late 2025. “This isn’t a simple solution that a producer such as XCF can simply produce enough product that creates economies of scale, that then allows an airline to participate,” Cooper says. 

To get that participation, passengers have to be involved as well, Cooper adds. They have to be willing to pay more to make it a viable solution.

“An airline only participates in cost increases when their corporate [partners] and or traveler participates,” he says. “They put a first class meal on an airplane because there’s a first class seat that they sold; the person paid a premium. So when we all work together and the passenger, whether it’s a corporate business or a tourist, pays for sustainability, then the airlines are able to participate and wholly adopt this new energy source for their needs.”

Airline emissions will only keep growing

Currently, aviation is responsible for about 2% of global greenhouse gas emissions. That adds another challenge to the efforts to decarbonize this type of transportation.

“If you’re going to spend a million dollars to decarbonize the economy, the bang for your buck spending it on SAF is a lot lower than just electrifying road transport,” Kirby says. “That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t be preparing for it and doing the work. We should. But the bang for the buck is bigger in other places.”

To that point, Cooper has a counter: Aviation may account for just 2% of global emissions right now, but that figure is growing. Between 2000 and 2019, aviation emissions grew faster than rail, road, or shipping emissions, according to the International Energy Agency. The International Civil Aviation Organisation forecasts that by 2050 international aviation emissions could triple compared to 2015. 

“The airline industry knows that” its emissions will increase, Cooper says. “They themselves have discussed the continual growth and expansion of demand into many, many years to come. …They’ll quickly become a greater percentage than 2%.”

Sustainable aviation fuels will be critical to mitigating that increase and decarbonizing the sector, experts say. Cooper hopes that the current fuel crisis will help highlight all benefits of the fuel alternative and hasten its adoption.

“Energy security is a global concern,” he says. “Periods of geopolitical instability have repeatedly exposed these vulnerabilities. And those disruptions have helped accelerate interest in SAF.”

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