Condé Nast expects search to become a single-digit of its traffic

Condé Nast now plans its business “as if search is zero” after years of Google algorithm updates and AI Overviews reducing visits to publisher websites. That’s according to CEO Roger Lynch, who was interviewed on TBPN, the tech media network that bills itself as “technology’s daily show” and was acquired by OpenAI in April.

What he’s saying. Condé Nast doesn’t expect Google traffic to disappear completely, but no longer considers search a reliable channel, Lynch said:

• “Last year, I told our teams: assume there’s no search. You have to have your businesses planned as if search is zero.”
• “We don’t expect it to be zero… We expect it to be a single-digit percentage of our traffic. Very low.”

The context. Lynch described a multi-year pattern where Google consistently cut publisher visibility more than expected:

• “Each of the last three years, we would do our budgets, and we’d put some forecasts in of search traffic declining… and then every year it was down more than we forecast.”

Why did Condé Nast’s search traffic decline? In addition to algorithm updates, he blamed AI Overviews and Google’s increasingly commercial search results.

• Search results from seven or eight years ago showed a few sponsored links then “10 blue links.”
• Today, users first see AI Overviews, then “rows and rows and rows of commerce links,” Lynch said.
• Organic links appear much farther down the page.

• “It’s been great for Google,” Lynch said.

A different era. Google’s changes broke the old model that companies like BuzzFeed used to turn Google and Facebook traffic into money, Lynch said.

• “That era is gone.”

Lynch said brands caught “in the middle” are struggling most in the AI and search transition.

• “Today, you need to be really nailing a specific niche where you have a loyal audience that’s willing to pay and and … If you have a brand where you’re investing in the journalism, if you have to make significant investments in journalism, supporting that just with advertising is a tough place to be.”

Condé Nast’s response. It has been to prioritize brands with:

• Strong direct audiences.
• Subscription potential.
• Clear authority in a niche or category.

He also said that AI-generated “slop” could ultimately help premium publishers with trusted brands and human-created journalism.

• “We’re going to always have human-created content. First of all, I know it’s what our audiences expect and want. Secondly, we have no competitive advantage over just creating AI-generated content. That doesn’t leverage any of the advantages we have. And so knowing what your advantages are competitive, and really building upon that, I think is always important in any business.”

Why we care. Lynch said the old model of turning search and social traffic into profitable media businesses no longer works. Publishers without loyal readers or a strong brand may struggle because Google and other platforms can change the rules at any time.

The interview. Condé Nast CEO Explains Why Human Journalism Wins in the AI Era (search discussion starts around 30:28)

View the full article