Are ICE raids impacting the housing market? Here’s what homebuilders say

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During his campaign, Donald Trump vowed to implement mass deportations. Since regaining power, he has signed multiple executive orders aimed at tightening border security and increasing arrests by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers.

In theory, an increase in deportations—let alone “mass deportations”—could impact U.S. homebuilders and their network of subcontractors.

While we don’t exactly know how many undocumented immigrants work in construction, we know it’s a chunk. In 2016, Pew Research Center estimated that 13% of the U.S. construction workforce is undocumented. In 2021, the Center for American Progress estimated that 23% of construction laborers are undocumented (see their full breakdown below).

Last month, analysts at John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) set out to find out if homebuilders are seeing an impact yet from deportations and arrests.

So far, there hasn’t been a big impact on the housing market: 11% of homebuilders in the JBREC survey said that recent deportations and/or changes in immigration policy have impacted their labor force.

What are the major publicly-traded homebuilders saying publicly?

Last week, Rick Palacios, director of research at JBREC, posted a roundup of recent comments made on earnings calls regarding deportations and the housing market. Here’s what they had to say:

Century Communities, Q4 2024 earnings call (January 29, 2025):

“Regarding ICE raids and deportations […] This is still early on unfolding. We have not seen anything on the ground or in our cost structure that needs us to react in a certain way. It’s just wait and see. But right now, we’re not seeing anything that is negative to the business.”

Beazer, Q1 2025 earnings call (January 30, 2025):

“Regarding impact of deportations and immigration issues […] Honestly, have not seen an impact. And we check in regularly. We’ve got a hotline set up internally to sort of anything, and I have not heard any news on that. I won’t be surprised if there is some in markets that we do business and in the industry. But so far, I have not heard of any.”

PulteGroup, Q4 2024 earnings call (January 30, 2025):

“Regarding impact of immigration enforcement […] It’s been a long-standing policy of our company trade partners and the labor that are on our job sites, we require verified residency status and/or work permits that allow them to work legally in the U.S. That’s been our position for a long time, it will continue to be our position. In terms of impacts to the broader labor force, even beyond just construction labor to the extent that there are deportation activities, there’s no question there’ll be less labor available and that will have an impact on all wage rates. And we’ll certainly have to deal with that as that becomes more clear.”

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation, Q4 2024 earnings call (February 12, 2025):

“Regarding potential impact of immigration . . . we’re happy to report that we haven’t seen anything hit the job site. Certainly, we’ve got protocols in place. Even though we’ve seen activity within markets, we have not seen anything hit our job sites. Coming into the year, we had a little bit of fear that we would see some absenteeism of folks. To date, I’d say there’s been no disruptions.”

Tri Pointe Homes, Q4 2024 earnings call (February 18, 2025):

“Regarding the impact of ICE raids or deportations […] No impacts at all. Typically, our trades have maintained the necessary requirements as far as making sure they’re legal citizens. Our trades have employees and teammates that have been with them for quite a while. We’re not expecting any labor issues this year, to be honest with you.”

Toll Brothers, Q1 2025 earnings call (February 19, 2025): 

“We have not seen any immediate supply chain impacts from tariffs or labor shortages due to changes in immigration policies, although we are monitoring developments closely and will pivot as necessary to deal with any issues that arise.”

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